PTA production capacity is concentrated in Asia and China leads the way
More than 80% of the world's PTA production capacity is concentrated in Asia, and China has become the world's largest PTA producer, accounting for nearly 50% of the world's production capacity, realizing full self-sufficiency. In 2012, the global PTA capacity was 68 million tons, of which the total capacity of Asia and North America in 2012 was 59.52 million tons / year, accounting for 87% of the global capacity, and the share of Asia was as high as 79%.
Asia is the main production and demand place of PTA in the world, while the production capacity of North America and Western Europe is far lower than that of Asia. By 2017, the proportion of PTA production capacity in Asia, North America and Western Europe reached 87%, 7% and 5%, respectively. China is the largest PTA supplier in Asia, accounting for 64%, followed by South Korea (9%), followed by Taiwan (9%), India (6%) and others (12%).
China PTA capacity growth slows down supply-demand relationship and improves continuously
At the end of 2016, China's PTA nominal capacity was 49.09 million tons / year, with an annual compound growth of 21.4% since 2010, while in 2016, China's PTA output was 31.64 million tons, with an annual compound growth of 14.4% in the same period. From 2011 to 2014, China's PTA industry has witnessed explosive growth in capacity, with the growth rate of production capacity reaching 31.1%, 56.8%, 4.7% and 31.6%, respectively. Among them, 2011, 2012 and 2014 are the peak production periods. After the financial crisis in 2008, large-scale stimulating investment has been made in China. When the domestic polyester capacity is put into operation, PTA will be greatly invested The supply gap continues to expand, with a self-sufficiency rate of 65%. Therefore, the domestic PTA industry has sufficient investment power, and the newly built capacity is put into operation in 2011-2014, which leads to serious overcapacity of PTA in China, and the utilization rate of capacity has also declined from 88.3% in 2010 to 64.5% in 2016.
After years of adjustment, the growth rate of PTA capacity in China has slowed down dramatically in recent years. Taking 2015 and 2016 as an example, it has dropped to 8.3% and 4.6% respectively. In 2017, China has few new PTA effective capacity, only 900000 tons / year installed and driven by Pengwei petrochemical in the first half of 2017. By the end of 2017, China's PTA effective capacity was about 37.2 million tons / year, up only 2.48% year-on-year, and the supply growth rate further slowed down, while the downstream polyester industry demand was strong, and PTA supply demand relationship was further improved.
The domestic profit situation is expected to be improved greatly, and the boom upward cycle is expected
In the first 10 months of 2017, PTA production in China was about 28.26 million tons, up about 8.1% year-on-year. Except for the year-on-year decline in June and July, the output of PTA in other months was growing positively, among which, the year-on-year growth in January, March and September was 19.7%, 21.2% and 23.4% respectively. In terms of demand, domestic PTA apparent consumption in the first 10 months of 2017 is about 28.23 million tons, an increase of about 8.9% year-on-year. Except for a small decline in July, the rest of the months have achieved positive growth. According to the accumulated data of the first 10 months of 2017, the domestic PTA production and apparent consumption basically kept an 8-9% growth rate, and the demand growth rate was slightly higher than the output growth, indicating that the supply and demand pattern continued to improve.
Break the net import barrier and promote PTA development
The main raw material of PTA is p-xylene (PX). The process route of PX production in China is mainly naphtha converted into high added aromatics products through catalytic reforming, aromatics extraction and pyrolysis gasoline produced by-product of ethylene plant through hydrogenation and aromatics extraction. PX is usually a byproduct of refineries, and its production is limited by naphtha, the main raw material. Naphtha in China is mainly used to produce ethylene and propylene, which is short of demand for a long time and needs to be imported. However, with the positive situation in the raw material industry in 2020, China is expected to achieve a total domestic production rate covering the demand, without import.
Leading enterprises are still stable with high regional concentration
China's main production capacity is concentrated in East China, South China and Northeast China, of which East China accounts for 42.64% of the total domestic production capacity, Northeast China accounts for 22.34% of the total domestic production capacity, South China accounts for 28.95% of the total domestic production capacity, and other regions account for 6.07% of the total domestic production capacity.
Hengli Group, founded in 1994, is an international enterprise with diversified development in trade, finance, thermoelectricity and so on, mainly engaged in petrochemical, polyester new materials and textile. At present, the group has one of the world's largest PTA plants with monomer production capacity, the world's largest functional fiber production base and one of the weaving enterprises.
Fujian fuhaichuang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has 4.5 million tons per year of PTA and 1.6 million tons per year of PX production units, and its comprehensive production cost ranks among the top three in China's PTA industry.
The main products of xinfengming Group Co., Ltd. are all kinds of medium and high-grade differential polyester filament, with nine sets of melt direct spinning production lines with an annual capacity of 180000 tons representing the most advanced productivity in the industry.
Better downstream demand promotes PTA demand
PTA market prices rose strongly, the downstream polyester resumption time was earlier than in previous years, the current polyester load has reached 87.69%, the downstream weaving plant load increased slowly, and gradually returned to normal production, polyester prices of major products also increased to varying degrees due to raw materials. And the downstream polyester inventory pressure is not big, polyester load is expected to be around 90% in March this year. With the recovery of domestic textile industry, steady economic growth and continuous improvement of export, the demand growth of domestic polyester filament is expected to pick up, and the cost and demand side support the PTA current price to rise.